Just another word on Financial Analysts

Recently I’ve been working with a client in the hardware industry.

They’re not a huge company, but, they’ve won business with the new Woolworths hardware stores - Masters. I’m helping them to upgrade their warehouse management and logistics systems to support the growth in business they’re projecting from Masters expansion plans.

I got pulled into a meeting with the Managing Director where he showed me this piece from the SMH.

He wanted to know what I thought. Would Woolworths pull out of the hardware market? What did it mean for him and his business?

This is the sort of idiotic dribble from a so called ‘expert’ that does no good for anyone except for turning the analyst from a spreadsheet jockey into a ‘rock star’ analyst. It’s great for his career. Not so much for anyone else.

Masters will bleed money. They’re buying property for their new stores, stocking up and expanding. Their target is 150 stores in 60 months, that’s just over 2 stores a month, every month for 5 years.

Congratulations Mr. Financial Analyst - you managed to state the obvious and you think this makes you some sort of genius?

Yes they will bleed money, at the start, and then they’ll get to the tipping point and they’ll start to make money - I’m sure some analyst will turn around and say that they forecast that would happen too…

All I told my client was “this report was put together by an analyst who is no different to the analysts that said sub-prime mortgages were a safe bet and we all saw how smart those guys really were”.

Woolworths are in business to make money and they wouldn’t get into this market lightly. Neither would their partner in this venture Lowe’s.

Steve Jobs Resigns as Apple CEO - its iMargeddon

It was always going to happen.

Jobs was never going to stay as CEO forever.

The fact that he resigned the way he did was smart, and good for Apple.

Despite what all the ADHD afflicted Wall Street wunderkinder think, dumping shares and claiming doom and gloom because their spreadsheet models say so, this isn’t as big a problem as everyone thinks.

1. Jobs is a long term thinker. He knew this day was coming and has been busy preparing.
2. While the common view of Apple is that its a company built on one tent pole, and that tent pole is Steve Jobs - there’s more to the company that just him.
3. Jobs brilliance lies in the fact that he can look at technology and distill it down to something that is accessible to the “I just want it to work” crowd.
4. I’m willing to bet money that he’s been explaining this rationale to everyone in his inner circle.
5. Apple’s product line for the next 2 years are already in the pipeline.
6. Apple’s engineering mules for the next 4 years of possible products are in the pipeline.

It’ll be good for column inches to say that Apple is screwed. Everyone said that the day Bill Gates resigned Microsoft was screwed.

Different situation. Gates resigned after the rot had set in and handed the reigns over to Monkey Boy. Vista was already in the works before Bill resigned, he just left the big steaming pile for Ballmer to deal with.

This time Jobs, appears, to be leaving with Apple going from strength to strength.

1. The iPhone 5 due ‘real soon now’.
2. The Mac grabbing market share like Ballmer grabs futile acquisitions.
3. A very successful patent war being fought against Samsung. The timing on this is interesting too.

The real reason I know Apple is in good stead - 5 year olds.

The other day I was in one of those Home Maker Super Centres.

The 5 year olds wanted to play with iPads and Macs. I mean all of them. They weren’t lining up top play with Windows 7 laptops or someone else’s tablet.

Want to know what tech trend to follow look at what floats the boat of a 5 year old.

I don’t really think iMargeddon is here - but if you do I’ll offer you a couple of bucks for your Apple shares.